Showing posts with label Peak Oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Peak Oil. Show all posts

Friday, November 11, 2011

An Integral Approach to Consciously Collapsing

Something is glaringly absent in the Integral Community. As I point out in the introduction of my 2011 book, Awakening The New Masculine: The Path of the Integral Warrior," here is the precipice humanity is teetering on:
 "Never before in human history has humankind been this close to a global psycho-social and spiritual awakening. At the same time, never have we been in such danger of being swept into a global totalitarianism, potentially more oppressive than any system known before. Technology, at the hands of little boys pretending to be men, has led us to this new geopolitical reality."
What's missing is paying attention to and addressing the biggest event that mankind has ever faced: Planetary Overshoot.  As a result of this obvious omission, couched in multiple perspectives of first-tier thinking and shadow, I find it difficult to to think of the Integral Community as...well...integral. Even what might be the first stage of second-tier thinking, Integral, or turquoise in Wilber's model of altitude, or yellow, in terms of Spiral Dynamics, with one of its primary focuses on competency,  lacks the compassion needed to empathize with the depth of pain that the coming changes are going to bring to the planet and the billions of people who will suffer through these times.

While the world, unions like the EU, nation states, and the people contained within these structures begin to feel the pain, and as things are speeding up, looking like a giant sink with the plug pulled with the accompanying whirlpool sucking everything down with it, the Integral Community seems to be mostly ignoring the bigger picture.

There are exceptions, but they are not really being paid attention to. As Andrew McDonald points out in a posting on Integral+Life, "......the integral world seems to be floating above this global problem emerging down there in the lower right quadrant. There are exceptions - Jim Garrison and Steve McIntosh for example and perhaps others - but there's an emphasis on theory out of step with the worry, concern, and genuine suffering in the economic downturn."

I agree completely with Andrew, but things don't just collapse in one quadrant. 

He also says, "Integral sometimes appears as if it's living on a plane that won't be directly affected personally by the implosion of the economy when and if that happens. Are most integralists wealthy or out of touch with where Main St. is. Or in denial of it?"

But collapse is not just financial, although that's where the focus seems to be. It's energy, environment, and economics, and they are all connected.

One of the responses to Andrew's thought-provoking questions was typical of the flawed new-age perspective of "The Secret" and the magical feel-good thinking that says we control our own reality that allows us to disassociate from the pain that's already going on in the world. This perspective is nothing more than an ego-centric worldview that says as long as I'm not suffering, the world is okay. I've said more about this in an earlier posting. What this response is actually saying is that it's someone else's problem (reality), not theirs, and is the kind of spiritual by-passing and up-and-out mentality that infects so many of us.

In stark contrast to what appears to be denial in the larger Integral Community (the denial is actually the fear of death), stands Spiral Dynamics integral, where discussion of what is happening in the world is not being ignored, but openly courted, and the prognosis is definitely leaning toward "some kind of collapse." It's clear that none of us have a crystal ball, but we can, and must, take a memetic approach and specifically tailor and apply our approach to collapse in all four quadrants.

At this time, green is seeing life conditions it cannot solve from it's level of consciousness (hence, the typical lack of a concise message from the Left). The new Republican Party, on the other hand, has a very absolutist approach to how they'd fix the problems we face. Both are reacting to problems they have helped to create. Given the ultra-polarized political environment in the U.S., it doesn't appear that collective second-tier solutions are going to happen.

With this in mind, how are we going to avoid an actual collapse as a result of planetary overshoot? Can we? How does a growing economic disaster impact climate change or energy needs? The news is not good, and it's out there for all to see if we're paying attention.

What second-tier should be doing

If we are going to be able to successfully navigate (whatever that means) the growing chaos, then we must first get out of denial and into acceptance that it's happening. Denial could kill you. This requires that we pay attention to what is actually happening in all four quadrants, in the interior, exterior, individual, and collective quadrants.

In the upper left quadrant - the quadrant of thoughts, emotions, state of mind, and human behavior - we must pay attention to our spiritual and emotional needs. We need to know how to step out of paralyzing fear. Using all four quadrants, determine what you think are the most likely scenarios, and then prepare for them the best you can, given your resources and abilities, and your awareness of what is arising in the other quadrants. This gives us the ability to step into calm acceptance, knowing that no matter how hard we may try, we can't possibly prepare for everything, and then let it go.

We do this in several ways. We find like-thinking others with whom we build community (lower left-quadrant), with shared values and meaning, who can support us as we support them. They don't need to be second-tier. We only need to have more that brings us together than separates us. In our newly forming community, "Conscious Transition WNC: A Network of Grace," we emphasize that we're not concerned about "why" collapse is happening - blame - but that it is happening, upon which we can all agree upon. In other words, we openly encourage - and insist - that everyone brings an openness that is accepting of all viewpoints. This allows multi-perspectivalism to develop, and this emerging process allows everyone to hear other viewpoints without having to defend their own. Community is an absolutely essential part of getting through whatever is coming. Otherwise, you're just a lone-wolf survivalist. Second-tier leadership provides the guidance and context that allows this to happen. Find and form your community.

We're also intensely aware of the geopolitics of collapse: what is happening, and how - the lower right and upper right quadrants, respectively. In the upper right, what is happening? The cold hard facts without interpretation. What can I see, touch, observe scientifically in time and space? What are the physical facts? We have to know because decisions need to be made based on those facts. For instance, watching what's going on in Europe at this time with banks and countries already collapsing gives us insight as to how it might unfold in the U.S. if the global financial markets are as connected as they appear to be. When should I think about withdrawing cash in case there are bank runs here as is already happening in Greece and Italy (and the U.S. as the wealthy flee with their money to what they think are safer havens)? 

In the lower right quadrant, how is it happening, what systems and networks are failing and in what time frame? How do they affect other systems? Technology? Government? Finance? Energy? The natural environment?

We simply must look at these issues through the 4-quadrant lens. As we've heard time and time again, anything less is partial, narrow, and fragmented....and there's already too much fragmentation in the world. That's what got us here. It won't get us out.

What then?

None of this guarantees that any of us will survive through what is coming. People don't want to hear that billions of people could die. Guess what? Millions are already dying and what do you need to see that will convince you that we don't have the capacity - energy and finances - or the political will to stop what is already happening? Collapse cannot be talked about in future tense, it's already happening.

What we can do is approach collapse in the most conscious manner possible. To be present to it as each moment arises, do what we can to improve how we come through this, however long it takes, and be more conscious individually and collectively than when we started. It's obvious that a lot of technology in the form of unbridled capitalism has not made our lives better. Maybe we'll be happier by getting smaller and living in the arms of gratitude. My sense is that it's by developing community, meaning, and sustainable systems that support all life on this planet. Maybe the way up is all the way down.

Where do the Integral leaders and community stand on collapse?

Saturday, January 05, 2008

ATM Limits Next?

Citibank is now limiting ATM withdrawals in New York City, blaming it on “isolated fraudulent activity.” If the fraudulent activity is isolated, why punish all your clients in a given region? This is certainly causing distress among New Yorkers because of the high cost of living in that city. Why not simply increase security on the ATMs? It looks an awful lot like Citibank is experimenting with rationing their cash outflows.

Read the full article here.

Where's your money? Many banks who invested in the subprime market are having liquidity problems. Tip of the iceberg?

Thursday, January 03, 2008

James Howard Kunstler's 2008 Predictions

I so want to write about my previous blog, A New Years' Message, because it is so eloquently written and presents such a positive view of what is possible at this turning of the ages. I firmly believe that there are people who are capable of embodying the essence of Christ Consciousness and who represent the second coming that is so close within our grasp, and yet so likely to slip between our fingers....and I will, but not today.

Instead, I'm going to write about what I fear will be the more likely scenario, deftly summarized by the author of "The Long Emergency," James Howard Kunstler.

Why present such a negative view when I could write about things so much more positive? Because we simply must look at all of the possibilities, and Kunstler's been dead-on for years.

Heres' a sample:
"I shudder to imagine how things will play out now as we turn the corner into 2008. Not to put too fine a point on it, but my little walnut brain can't imagine any scenario in which the US economy doesn't end up on a gurney in history's emergency room. It's not necessary to rehash the particulars of the Greenspan bubble-blowing disaster. The outcome is what concerns us. The web cables have been blazing for months with arguments as to what form the workout will take. There's little disagreement about the fundamentals at the housing end of things."
Read the whole enchilada here.

The shift we've hoped and prayed for may not look anything like we imagined, and could be very, very expensive and dear.

Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Where Are We Headed?

People who know me, and not just through the Internet or my blog, pretty much describe me as outgoing, optimistic, and positive. I always believe things are going to work out, even if they seemingly aren't. Seemingly is the key word, and must be referred to throughout this blog, even the end results and conclusions.

This is a time in history when it feels somewhat difficult to be optimistic. I can't tell you how many people I've heard who are referring to "a shift" taking place...a turning of the ages, if you will, predicted for this time by sources long gone, including Nostradamus, the Mayans, and, yes, even the Bible. We no longer have to worry about predictions - we only have to open our eyes.

It's hard to be optimistic as we near the end of 2007 with all of the events and circumstances we now find ourselves facing. We face monumental problems unlike any humankind has ever experienced. For one, up until about 70 years ago, at no time in our history have we had the wherewith all to completely destroy ourselves, and even that scenario and possibility, despite the end of the Cold War, is still with us today. Ideologues, despots, religious fundamentalists, and madmen seem to control these fierce arsenals, and who knows what any of them might do as result of a perceived threat or to further their own means. We don't have took far to find them, either.

Wars might have broken out in spots, but most places were untouched by them at any given time and our survival as species was not threatened.

No longer.

We now have have Pakistan's leader, Musharraf, taking complete control of that country and it's nuclear arsenal. We have already seen the first resource war, the first Gulf War, where Saddam Hussein tried to take control of Kuwait's oil fields, and are seeing the second in the US occupation of Iraq. Make no mistake: Every war from here on out is a resource war, whether for oil or water.

California has it's own resource war ongoing on between the north and the south and the battle for the state's water is taking serious shape. Watch this one closely: it will be retold again and again across the globe over the next few years. LA has no water and rather than legislate, California's legislators are preparing two bills, one in favor of the south and one in favor of the north, to see which way the wind blows. Atlanta has a dwindling 4 month supply in it's aquifer and is ground zero in the epic drought that's tightening it's grip on the south. Use of middle America's Ogallala Aquifer, running from Nebraska to Texas, averages 25% above the rate of replacement - more bad news.

The Debt Crisis: Citibank just wrote down $11.5 billion in bad loans as a result of the sub-prime market. It wrote down another $6B just a month ago. Many are saying it's the first domino in a collapsing banking industry. That causes another serious problem:

The Stock Market: As a result of the Debt Crisis, the stock market crashes, losing approximately 25%, or more, of it's value. The dollar continues to fall.

As the dollar falls, foreign governments, particularly OPEC nations, switch to the EURO as the trading currency, further devaluing the dollar: Depression. Massive unemployment. Debt. Record bankruptcies.

Oil is going to reach $100 a barrel real soon. It hit $96 a barrel today. Up from $60 a barrel 4 months ago. Any predictions?

Global Warming. Coming down the highway like a giant big rig running on it's last gallon of diesel. More drought.

Population: 6+ Billion and growing.

I struggle for balance in the face of all the negativity thrust upon us as a result of increased awareness through being able to hold the "unholdable" perspective, and as a result, being more conscious than the average comatose individuals who have been intentionally lulled to sleep (the average people I know don't have a clue about what's going on or are in denial).

I look at these events with a belief that these are not random, meaningless events, but, rather, are occurring for the distinct purpose of waking us up, to stretch us into new territories of awareness. For me, that waking up is the profound realization that what we are now doing, as Americans, and as humanity, is simply not sustainable, and that there will be a shift, and things will be very different than they are now.

Friday, October 19, 2007

Peak Oil and The End of Suburbia

Several months ago I began writing an article for one of the sign industry trade magazines about Peak Oil and what the impact would be on the industry that I've been a part of for the last 25 years. As a former sign company owner, general manager of the second largest sign company in Reno, an oft-published author for sign trade magazines, and as a consultant who specializes in turning around and managing sign companies, I am immanently qualified to write about the industry.

I started thinking about the article with the premise that paints, vinyls, digital printing, manufacturing, and almost everything that makes our industry possible, including energy, was going to be in short supply, and that sign company owners should make plans to switch to as many other technologies as possible to protect themselves, their businesses, and their employees.

As I began my research into Peak Oil for the article, I started discovering some disturbing things: That the problem was far more serious than I had imagined, and that scientific conclusions from the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, bankers, and investors in the world, many from varying political ideologies, all rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by the phenomenon known as global "Peak Oil."

Realizing that what I had to write about to tell the truth about my conclusions would never be published in any of our trade magazines, I dropped my plans for the article.

In the U.S., our "peak oil" came in the '70's when we began importing more oil than we were exporting, and has been dropping steadily ever since. We simply did not have the continuing resources to meet out national thirst. Consequently, we started buying from other sources.

Globally, most experts are saying that worldwide "peak oil" has occurred, or will occur, between 2004 and 2008, and best estimates indicate it happened in 2005. That's when Worldwide demand will outpace worldwide production by a significant margin. We don't know for sure. What we do know for sure is that everyone, including the Saudis, are lying about their oil reserves (here, here, and here).

This is not a temporary problem. It will be permanent condition, and as I've written here recently, there's no alternative in sight. In a 1999 speech , while still CEO of Haliburton, Dick Cheney stated:

"By some estimates, there will be an average of two-percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three-percent natural decline in production from existing reserves.That means by 2010 we will need an additional 50 million barrels per day."


Cheney's assessment is supported by the estimates of numerous non-political, retired, and now disinterested scientists, many of whom believe global oil production will peak and go into terminal decline within the next five years. Many industry insiders think the decline rate will far higher than Cheney predicted in 1999. Andrew Gould, CEO of the giant oil services firm Schlumberger, for instance, recently explained:

"An accurate average decline rate is hard to estimate, but an overall figure of 8% is not an unreasonable assumption."


Last night, we watched the DVD The End of Surburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream. With brutal honesty and a touch of irony, The End of Suburbia explores the American Way of Life and its prospects as the planet approaches a critical era, as global demand for fossil fuels begins to outstrip supply. World Oil Peak and the inevitable decline of fossil fuels are upon us now, some scientists and policy makers argue in this documentary.

Carl Jung, one of the fathers of psychology, famously remarked that "people cannot stand too much reality," and this challenges everyone's assumptions about the kind of world we live in, and especially the kind of world into which events are propelling us, and it looks like we're in for a rough ride into uncharted territory.

What's integral got to do with this? Can you see others' perspectives? Can you suspend disbelief long enough to consider that this is a possibility and do some research on your own without dismissing it out of hand? Can you begin an integral approach in solving what can be solved and preparing for what cannot? What if your way of life depended on it? What if your very life, and those of your loved ones, depended on it?

More information